During the last two or three years, I have gown accustomed to hearing two bits of conventional wisdom that never made sense to me. Each time I'd hear either one, I'd mull 'em over a bit, but I still didn't buy it.

Over the years, my reasons for not buying them began to jell more each time someone tried to affirm their truth. But, strikingly, no one ever presented much of a counterpoint.

A few weeks ago, I was attending a meeting hosted by Federal-Mogul. One of the presenters was Ray Swetman, manager, engine parts for Federal-Mogul. He covered both of these issues—and I'd found a kindred spirit.

The two issues? First, the rise of leasing. Second, the increasing quality and reliability of cars. Both are presented as detrimental to the health of the aftermarket.

Leasing, the story goes, ties the vehicle to the dealership for service, cutting out the aftermarket. Increasing quality eliminates the need for many repairs altogether. After listening to, and speaking with Mr. Swetman, I'm more convinced than ever it just ain't so. At least, there is more to the story . . .

Leasing absolutely ties a vehicle to the dealer – at least for the early years of its life. And it is also true that, especially for high-end cars, after the first lease is up the (now used) car is sometimes leased again. But so what?

Leasing is simply one more way to move vehicles into the marketplace, and the truth is that cars in their first few years of life tend to go back to the dealers anyway. That's true whether the car is leased or purchased.

In fact, if leasing has any aftermarket effect, it just might be positive. Consider this: If you buy a car, you have an incentive to maintain it. Sure, you may be planning to trade it in in two or three years, but there's a chance you'll own it longer. Not wanting problems, and just in case, you'll take it in for service.

But when you lease, you know you'll be dumping it after a specified time. If it's leased again, that owner knows he'll be dumping it after a couple of years.

So after three, four or five years, we have these cars with little or no maintenance entering their aftermarket lives. Smells like opportunity to me.

“Yes, but cars are better made these days,” the pundits say. “Nothing goes wrong with them in the first five years or so.” Well, true enough, but that's unimportant. Why? Because the life expectancy of your average car has grown dramatically.

In the old days, cars lasted eight or nine years and entered the aftermarket's care after, say, two or three and were serviceable for five to seven years. Today it may take a car four or five years to reach us but it has a life expectancy of 12 to 15 years. Its time with us in the aftermarket: seven to eleven years.

Now if this doesn't match what you see in your business, consider the “technology trough.” This is the term Swetman gives the lag time for those newer, better made cars to reach their aftermarket years. We have the trough because quality improvements happened so quickly that they created a gap as older cars were scrapped and newer cars had not yet hit that five-year-old mark. Accordingly, as we pass through this trough, the supply of aftermarket cars will begin to rise again. Some very smart people see that as our future, and that's bullish for all of us.

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